Will Micron Technology (MU) explode after its $200B political gamble?


U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Micron Technology (MU) is planning to pour $200 billion into U.S. advanced memory chip production. The number is so staggering that analysts are openly calling it political theater from the Trump administration.

“We’ve seen Micron Technology — they were in visiting this week. They’re going to put in $200 billion [in the U.S.],” Bessent told CNBC on Thursday.

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The math doesn’t add up. Micron generates around $1.8 billion in annual free cash flow — the leftover cash after covering operating expenses — making a $200 billion build-out appear untethered from financial reality.

“When are they gonna put in $200 billion by? 2150?” said Spencer Hakimian of Tolou Capital Management.

Professional options trader Jaguar Analytics seconded the skepticism, noting Micron’s entire market capitalization sits near $121 billion. “Money doesn’t grow on trees,” the analyst added.

Micron isn’t the only company putting out eyebrow-raising investment numbers. Bessent also claimed Apple (AAPL) is gearing up to invest between $500 billion and $600 billion in the U.S., well beyond its design and R&D footprint.

As ZeroHedge pointed out, Apple’s total capital expenditures over the last four years amount to just $43 billion. A sudden ramp to $600 billion over the next four years would be unprecedented — and, most say, implausible.

Even so, both Micron and Apple stocks rallied last week, outpacing a broader market drop as investors latched onto the idea that massive U.S. investments could help them dodge looming tariffs.

Hopes for tariff exemptions grow

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Wall Street was already on edge after President Trump vowed to slap a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports, with carve-outs for companies “building in the United States.”

Bessent’s investment talk gave bulls hope that Micron and Apple might qualify for exemptions, even if the numbers behind those plans don’t pass the smell test.

However, analysts warn that the policy is far from finalized. “It’s still too early to pin down the impact of the tariffs on the semiconductor sector,” Ray Wang, a supply chain expert at The Futurum Group, told CNBC.

“The final rule is likely still being drafted, and the technical details are far from clear at this point.”

Bernstein semiconductor analyst Stacy Rasgon noted that even the scope of the tariff remains murky, whether it’s aimed at raw chips or finished devices.

That makes it impossible to know exactly who will pay and who might slip through on the promise of U.S. investment.


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