Here's why Sunrun (RUN) stock thrives in Trump’s anti-solar era

After four years of riding the Biden administration’s aggressive clean energy push, renewable energy companies saw their momentum stall on day one of President Trump’s return to the White House.

Trump wasted no time issuing an executive order halting new leases for offshore wind projects. By July, a second executive order ended tax credits for wind and solar, which Trump labeled “expensive and unreliable energy sources.”

While the sector scored a modest win when the Senate stripped a proposed $7 billion tax on wind and solar from Trump’s One Big Beautiful Act, the reprieve is short-lived.

Any break clean energy has caught this year has come with strings attached.

Case in point is a one-year extension of Biden-era tax breaks for wind and solar passed with the help of a few Senate Republicans, only for the qualification rules to be tightened later, making it harder to access the credits.

Despite the snapped funding cord, one solar company is bucking the trend.

Sunrun’s surprise surge

Sunrun (RUN) stunned Wall Street last week with second-quarter earnings that not only beat expectations but also turned a profit.

The solar installer reported earnings of $1.07 per share on $569 million in revenue, well ahead of the projected 9-cent loss on $559 million in revenue, according to FactSet.

Installations hit 227 megawatts, up 18% year-over-year, while battery installs reached a record 392 megawatt hours, a 48% jump, according to Susquehanna analysts Charles Minervino and Eric Clay.

JPMorgan boosted its price target to $20 from $16, citing confidence in Sunrun’s ability to sustain profitable project returns through 2028. The bank pointed to expected cost reductions, growing grid services revenue, and higher utility rates as key drivers, even without federal tax credits.

Of all the analysts covering Sunrun, just one has a Sell rating on the stock despite the sector’s policy headwinds.

Teaming up with Tesla

In a potential game-changer for its Texas footprint, Sunrun announced a home energy partnership with Tesla Electric (TSLA). Designed for Sunrun Flex customers, the plan offers low fixed electricity rates and industry-leading sellback prices for excess solar power sent to the grid.

The collaboration aims to maximize solar production, provide battery backup during outages, and increase energy independence.

“We’ve put customers first by combining the resources, technology, and knowledge of two companies that know energy best,” Sunrun CEO Mary Powell said. “Pairing Tesla’s custom electric plan with Sunrun Flex results in a superior customer experience and unparalleled energy independence.”

Given Elon Musk’s view that solar power is “so obviously the future for anyone who can do elementary math,” the partnership makes sense.